Stuart Webber has gone back to his first ever managerial appointment in order to try and save Norwich’s rapidly sinking season. At initial glance this can appear a lazy appointment, or a boring one, and it certainly doesn’t match the ambition or risk taken when Webber first appointed the unknown Wagner at Huddersfield 7 years ago, or the appointment of Daniel Farke to Norwich in 2017.
Wagner and Farke have often been compared due to the Webber connection as well as being coaches of Dortmund’s 2nd team. However, their style and approach are very different. Farke was always keen to point out he was more a follower of the Guardiola/Tuchel school of football while Wagner is a full on Klopp disciple — Wagner was the best man for Klopp after they built a strong bond playing together for Mainz. It was also at Mainz where Klopp and Wagner developed their appreciation for the high intensity, ‘gegenpress’ style they have both deployed as coaches.
Much has been written about gegenpressing over the years and most are familiar with its core tenants of high intensity and winning back the ball within 6 seconds of a turnover. Klopp is the most famous proponent of the style and has used it with great effect at Mainz, Dortmund and Liverpool.
Wagner implemented the style to great success at Huddersfield also, after a first season of bedding in, and propelled them to an unlikely play-off win and even more unlikely Premier League survival. Tifo expertly explained how Wagner’s tactics worked in the video below.
Despite the ‘heavy metal’ style of gegenpress it was Huddersfield’s defence which was the foundation of their promotion and initial survival. In their first Premier League campaign Huddersfield had the 10th best xGa and even when relegated their were 4 teams with higher xGa than them. However, in both seasons they registered the lowest xG and it was scoring goals that ultimately led to their downfall scoring less than 30 in both of their Premier League seasons. Again at Schalke, in his full season there Wagner made them a solidly mid-table team defensively but their attack was the 2nd worst in the league. Improving the defence will have been one of the things on the top of Norwich’s ‘to-do list’ so Wagner seemingly offers a big tick here, but if he can balance a solid defence with a functional attack is uncertain.
It is the attacking build up where Wagner has probably struggled most in his coaching career so far. He likes to have an attacking three who play narrow, with wingbacks providing the support. However, this can become very narrow at times and allows opposition teams to themselves sit narrow and deny any attacking space. The most effective form of attack for Wagner has been through the press where his teams will force turnovers high up the pitch. In the Bundesliga in despite having the third lowest number of shots, Schalke created the 4th highest number of shots from defensive actions. This shows the reliance on winning the ball rather than being able to fashion chances through possession.
Buildup play under Wagner is quite middle of the ground, he isn’t possession hungry and won’t have his centre backs passing between themselves endlessly, but neither is he overly direct. At Schalke his team was almost exactly mid table in possession, passing completion and length of goal kicks. Ball progression isn’t usually achieved through passing though, and is heavily reliant on progressive carries or simply winning the ball high up the pitch.
An issue that Wagner faced is that once teams had learnt to cope with his team’s press, they found it easy to defend against. His teams would struggle to create much when in possession so teams knew they could allow Huddersfield or Schalke to have the ball in relative safety and wait for a mistake. Wagner has his system and doesn’t chop and change much and has often been accused of lacking a Plan B (a similarity he does share with Farke) which creates a high level of predictable play.
How Wagner might look to set up Norwich is a intriguing prospect. The biggest hole in Norwich’s squad is the lack of wide attackers and an effective №10. This may not be a big problem for Wagner, whose Huddersfield system saw ‘wide’ attackers coming very narrow and attacking almost like strikers, while he rarely deployed a traditional 10. This is similar to Klopp’s early Liverpool where Salah and Mane would come very narrow in attack and the midfield is more focused on industry than guile. At Schalke Wagner used a 4–1–3–2 more often to fit the players in his squad. This would suit Norwich’s lack of wingers more and could be where he starts with Norwich.
There is also the question of whether Norwich’s midfield will be able to learn and implement Wagner’s pressing game in a season with an extremely congested calendar and little time on the training ground between games. While Sara, McLean, Gibbs and Nunez would certainly have the industry to be able to physically carry out the press, it is likely to be a whole new tactical idea to the Sara and Nunez in particular. The lack of a fit defensive midfielder will also be a major concern for Wagner who relies on someone dropping in between the centre backs to allow the wing backs further forward.
It may be something like the above is how Wagner initially lines up. This would seem to play to many of the current squad strengths, but progressing the ball to the two strikers may be the biggest issue. Sara’s ability to get into good positions in the box can be maximised in this system, but he has looked less comfortable when played as a 10 than on the left hand side of the midfield three. The lack of width of this system was also apparent when Wagner used it in Germany, with Schalke making the least crosses of any team in the league, and while crosses don’t particularly suit Pukki’s game someone does need to provide him with balls into the box.
Wagner may opt to use the 4–3–3/4–2–3–1 hybrid system he used at Huddersfield (above). By having Idah and Sargent tuck in narrow and again the width coming from wingbacks. This would be similar to Alan Russell/Steve Weaver’s systems which didn’t deliver well, but could be more productive with coaching and familiarity (and using substitutes). Either way you’d feel getting a defensive midfielder to cover Hayden and Sorenson’s injuries is needed. Norwich needing a defensive midfielder has been pretty much a constant in every transfer window in recent memory.
Overall I’m fairly positive on Wagner’s appointment. His style is something totally new to Norwich, despite’s Smith’s claims he wanted to press more it was rarely really seen under him. Wagner’s team will certainly change that. There is also little shared in style with Farke, despite lazy comparisons between the two.
There are obvious concerns about Wagner’s failings in producing a highly functioning attack like Norwich saw under Farke, but he has the best defensive credentials of any Norwich coach for a long while. This doesn’t mean his football is boring, but the x-factor comes from the aggressive press and off-ball actions. Also, the squads available to Wagner at both Huddersfield and Schalke were well below average for their leagues, meaning the potential to play dazzling football was minimised. At Norwich he will inherit a team with a squad that is more talented than most of his opponents.
The tag of being ‘Webber’s mate’ or a ‘lazy’ appointment will be hard for him to escape and if there wasn’t an existing relationship it is probably hard to imagine Wagner being Norwich’s choice. However, this doesn’t immediately make it a bad choice.
I can see why Webber did not want to take a big gamble on bringing in a relatively inexperience coach who had never managed in England before as there isn’t the need for Norwich to do that now, like there was when Farke was first appointed at Norwich or when Wagner came to Huddersfield. Wagner’s return to English football will be closely watched by many I’m sure, after leaving Germany many felt he had been undone by off pitch shenanigans undermining him, but a fairly uninspiring time in Switzerland has brought question marks over his ability. It is this time at Young Boys which is the hardest to figure out, on paper not retaining the league there was a large failure and it seemed he never really managed to get his ideas across to the team. Having the clubs leading goalscorer sold as he arrived and not really replaced was also a significant factor though.
Brining in Wagner feels like Webber’s player recruitment policy in his early days at Norwich. Someone who was highly regarding but had seen their career slip and needing a second chance. If he can recapture the spark he had at Huddersfield and the first half of his time at Schalke then Wagner can revitalise a Norwich team desperately low on confidence, but he may need time to do so and with fan cynicism already high and patience low this could be his biggest struggle.
